COVID-19: Third Wave Peak Expected Around Sept-Oct, Says IIT Kanpur Study
India is currently in the second wave of COVID-19, which is expected to decline by July 2021. But as per the recent study by IIT Kanpur, the third wave of the virus is expected by September-October this year. The study is done by Prof. Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma, along with their team, which also provides daily forecasts related to COVID-19 in India on covid19-forecast.org.
According to a press statement, people and policymakers are anxious about the third wave of COVID-19. For this, three scenarios have been constructed using the SIR model, with the epidemic parameters of the second wave. The scenarios are constructed assuming that India will be fully unlocked by 15 July. The first scenario (Back-to-Normal), the third wave peak will be witnessed in October with a lower peak height than the ongoing second wave. In the second scenario (normal with virus mutations), the peak could be higher than the second one and may appear early in September. Whereas in the third scenario (stricter interventions), the peak of the wave could be delayed until late October if strict social distancing practices are followed.
In India, the second wave is fading significantly except in some states including Goa, Meghalaya, Sikkim, Mizoram, Manipur, and Kerala. As per the study, most positivity rates are less than 5% but Kerala, Goa, Sikkim, and Meghalaya have a positivity rate of more than 10%.
Another study related to COVID-19 third wave is expected to come by the end of this week.
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Disclaimer: This article is issued in the general public interest and meant for general information purposes only. Readers are advised not to rely on the contents of the article as conclusive in nature and should research further or consult an expert in this regard.
